As of midyear 2016, Kenya had a population of 48.5 million, annual population growth rate of 2.6%, and 41% of Kenya’s population was under age 15. The Total Fertility Rate, or the average number of children per woman over the course of her lifetime, had declined from 6.1 children in 1990 to 4.4 children per woman in 2015. Kenya is on the path to a population age structure that may enable it to experience a demographic dividend.
The broad bases in both “Kenya 1970” and “Kenya 1990” represent a large number of children in relation to the working age population. “Kenya 2010” shows a base that is beginning to narrow at the youngest ages, representing a fertility decline. “Kenya 2030” is the United Nations projection of Kenya’s population age structure if fertility continues to decline. This pyramid assumes that by 2030, fertility will decline to an average of 3.4 children per woman over the course of her lifetime. “Kenya 2050” shows a further decline in fertility and ongoing changes to the age structure. This pyramid shows a larger working age population than currently exists compared to the number of dependent children and elders.
Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Kenya
If Kenya continues to make substantial investments in reproductive health and family planning, fertility levels may continue to decline, and children will be more likely to achieve better basic levels of health. With additional investments in health and education and economic initiatives to facilitate job creation, Kenya may be able to experience the rapid economic growth known as a demographic dividend. There are several organizations working on the topic of a demographic dividend in Kenya.
- The Government of Kenya has worked to create policies and allocate funds in order to improve health and education and to create jobs.
- National Transfer Accounts project created a country brief on the subject of the generational economy and the demographic dividend in Kenya.
- The Health Policy Project and National Council for Population and Development applied the DemDiv projection model to the Kenyan context.
- National Council for Population and Development continues to disseminate the results of the DemDiv model and to communicate with policymakers about strategic investments needed in order to realize a demographic dividend.
Population Reference Bureau, 2014 World Population Data Sheet, (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2014).
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, (New York: United Nations, 2013).
World Bank Group. (2014) World DataBank. Retrieved from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx
Education statistics were taken from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey for each country.
World Bank Group. (2014) Worldwide Governance Indicators. Retrieved from http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home
World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015, (Geneva: Switzerland, 2014).
Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income or consumption expenditure among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. Thus a Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 100 implies perfect inequality.
Dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents--people younger than 15 or older than 64--to the working-age population--those ages 15 to 64. Although each country’s experience is different, countries that have realized a demographic dividend typically have a dependency ratio of less than 50 dependents for every 100 working-age adults.
Worldwide Governance Indicators are measured on a scale from -2.5 to +2.5. The closer to 2.5 the rating is, the stronger the governance. Government Effectiveness is a composite governance indicator with data from multiple sources. Political stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism is a composite governance indicator with data from multiple sources More information on methodology available at: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home
Global Competitiveness Index defines competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. The level of productivity, in turn, sets the level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy. The different aspects of competitiveness are captured in 12 pillars, ranging from institutional strength to market size. http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015/