Nigeria’s population pyramids from 1970 to 2010 look nearly identical. The lack of change between these pyramids means that the age structure of the country hasn’t changed much in the last 40 years. Total fertility rates in the country remain high and, in general, each working age adult supports several dependents. “Nigeria 2030” looks different than previous pyramids and is based on United Nations projections that assume a decline in total fertility to 4.9 children per woman over her lifespan. As a result, a slight narrowing of the base of this population pyramid is evident. “Nigeria 2050” shows a more noticeable narrowing of the base of the population pyramid, based on the assumption that fertility will decline further to 3.7 children per woman. In this 2050 scenario, Nigeria would have a larger proportion of the population working-age and, if able to secure employment, able to contribute to economic growth.
Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Nigeria
Demographic Dividend Effort Index and scorecard
In November 2020, the Bill and Melinda Gates Institute for Population and Reproductive Health, the National Population Commission (NPC), and the Johns Hopkins Center for Communication Programs-Nigeria launched the Demographic Dividend Effort Index (DDEI) at the 2020 National Family Planning Conference. The Demographic Dividend Effort Index was developed based on a novel demographic dividend cultivation framework that resulted from a systematic literature review conducted by the Gates Institute.
The Nigeria DDEI report was officially launched by the National Population Commission which also formally recognized this index as a tool that will be used by the government to bridge the gaps, inform new policies, and serve as a monitoring tool for the Government efforts in key demographic dividend sectors namely Family Planning, Maternal, and Child Health, Women Empowerment, Education, Labor Market, and Governance and Economic Institutions. The NPC committed to implementing this tool at the National and Sub-national levels. Considering the effects of the COVID-19 pandemics on all these sectors, the DDEI report also covered multisectoral measures of health and development systems resilience.
Funding for the development of the demographic dividend effort index was provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through a grant to the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Read the Nigeria demographic dividend effort index report
Watch the National Population Commission Chairman Press Briefing on Nigeria DDEI
Read the Gates Institute demographic dividend cultivation framework systematic literature review
Explore the demographic dividend scorecard dashboard
There are also other few organizations that have researched the topic of a demographic dividend in Nigeria.
- M&C Saatchi demographic dividend communication toolkit and film
- National Transfer Accounts project created a country brief on the subject of the generational economy and the demographic dividend in Nigeria.
- African Population Studies created a special supplement in Spring 2014 on Nigeria Population and Development Issues. The supplement included two articles on the demographic dividend in Nigeria.
Population Reference Bureau, 2019 World Population Data Sheet, (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2019).
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision, (New York: United Nations, 2019).
World Bank Group. (2019) World DataBank. Retrieved from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx
Education statistics were taken from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey for each country.
World Bank Group. (2014) Worldwide Governance Indicators. Retrieved from http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home
World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015, (Geneva: Switzerland, 2014).
Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income or consumption expenditure among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. Thus a Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 100 implies perfect inequality.
Dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents–people younger than 15 or older than 64–to the working-age population–those ages 15 to 64. Although each country’s experience is different, countries that have realized a demographic dividend typically have a dependency ratio of less than 50 dependents for every 100 working-age adults.
Worldwide Governance Indicators are measured on a scale from -2.5 to +2.5. The closer to 2.5 the rating is, the stronger the governance. Government Effectiveness is a composite governance indicator with data from multiple sources. Political stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism is a composite governance indicator with data from multiple sources More information on methodology available at: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home
Global Competitiveness Index defines competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. The level of productivity, in turn, sets the level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy. The different aspects of competitiveness are captured in 12 pillars, ranging from institutional strength to market size. http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015/